A Gallup Poll released on January 11, 2021 measured the Political Ideology of Americans among Independents, Republicans, and Democrats. The Gallup poll asked those in each group whether they consider themselves “Very Conservative, Conservative, Moderate, Liberal or Very Liberal.” The Gallup data are presented in three Graphs further below.
This polling data, combined with other Gallup polling data (January 4-15, 2021) measuring Party Affiliation of Americans, sheds light on the extent of partisanship among Americans.
In summary, the findings of these two Gallup Polls, combined, support the view that fully 66% of all Americans are now part of a vast nonpartisan or cross-partisan group of Americans that we refer to as the Center Majority of America!
That is, 66% of all Americans now identify themselves as Independent, Moderate, or a member of one Party but ideologically leaning toward views of the other Party. Only 34% of the population comprise the extreme partisans (Conservative Republicans or Liberal Democrats):
The recent Gallup poll data, and a more detailed analysis of the data follows.
The Data
1. Gallup Data on Americans’ Political Ideology – January 11, 2021
Following are the Gallup data on American Political Ideology, upon which this analysis of the ideological and partisanship breakdown of each Party is based:
Currently, 75% of Republicans identify as Conservatives, while 20% identify as Moderate, and 4% as Liberal (leaning toward the views of the other Party):
Currently, 51% of Democrats identify as Liberals, while 36% identify as Moderate, and 12% as Conservative (leaning toward the views of the other Party):
Currently, 48% of Independents identify as Moderate, while 29% identify as Conservative, and 20% as Liberal (thus 49% identify as Independent but leaning toward the views of one of the Parties):
See full Gallup data from the January 11, 2021 Poll on Americans’ Political Ideology »
2. Gallup Data on Party Affiliation of Americans – January 4-15, 2021
As reported in our previous article, “Independents Outnumber both Republicans & Democrats – Approximately 2 to 1!,” the Gallup poll on Party Affiliation of Americans conducted from January 4-15, 2021, found that just 25% of all Americans now identify as Republicans, 30% as Democrats, and fully 45% as Independents:
Findings
The Gallup Data presented in Sections 1 and 2 above are entirely consistent with the findings of the Hidden Tribes Study presented in Section 3 above.
The tables in Data Section 1 above present Gallup’s latest polling data on the ideological make up of the two Parties. As shown in the data above:
Extreme Partisans Do Dominate Each of the Political Parties
Conservative Republicans make up 75% of the Republican Party, while Liberal Democrats make up 51% of the Democratic Party. Thus, it appears that the most partisan Americans do dominate each of the two Major Political Parties.
On this basis many Media commentators breathlessly assert that America is becoming more and more polarized.
However, each of the Two Major Parties Now Make Up Rather Small Minorities of the Total Electorate
As shown in the Pie Chart in Data Section 2 above, and as reported in our previous article, “Independents Outnumber both Republicans & Democrats – Approximately 2 to 1!,” just 25% of all Americans now identify as Republicans, 30% as Democrats, and fully 45% as Independents:
Therefore, the Extreme Partisans of Both Parties Together make up only 34% of the Total Population!
While the most partisan Conservative Republicans do make up 75% of the Republican Party, according to the new data in the graphs further above, nevertheless, as shown in the pie charts above, Republicans now make up only 25% of Americans. Thus the most partisan Conservative Republicans amount to just 17.75% of the American people:
» 75% of the 25% of Americans who are Republicans = Only 17.75% of Americans are Conservative Republicans
Similarly, the most partisan Liberal Democrats make up 51% of Democrats, but since Democrats now make up only 30% of Americans, the most partisan Liberal Democrats amount to only 15.3% of the American People:
» 51% of the 30% of Americans who are Democrats = Only 15.3% of Americans are Liberal Democrats
Thus, the Extreme Partisans – some of whom engage in the ongoing loud and heated Partisan Power Wars that most attract the conflict-seeking media – together, amount to only 34% of the population:
» 17.75% of Americans who are Conservative Republicans + 15.3% of Americans who are Liberal Democrats = Only 34% of Americans who are Extreme Partisans
The Remaining 66% of the Electorate are part of the Center Majority of America
All the remaining 66% of the Electorate, according to the Gallup data above, describe themselves as either Independent, Moderate, or a member of one Party leaning toward views of the other Party. This vast majority of Americans are actually quite open to nonpartisan, bipartisan, or cross-partisan solutions.
These are the people of the Center Majority of America – those who, we have found, value Country over Party, and seek Solutions rather than Partisan conflict.
Analysis
Measuring Actual Partisanship of Americans
A long line of political science research, starting with a famous study by Philip Converse in 1964, and including the more recent book, “Neither Liberal nor Conservative,” by Donald R. Kinder and Nathan P. Kalmoe (2017), has found that most Americans are not strongly ideological – Conservative or Liberal. Rather, most Americans tend to choose membership in a Political Party more on the basis of which Party those around them (including their family, neighbors, friends, and those they perceive as “like them” in terms of class, religion or race) belong to. In fact, when asked whether they are “conservative” or “liberal” these studies have found that most people will respond “conservative” if they identify themselves as a “Republican” or “liberal” if they identify as a Democrat – without regard to whether their ideological views are truly Conservative or Liberal. [1]
Thus, when respondents in the recent Gallup poll measuring Political Ideology identified themselves as both Republican and Conservative or both Democrat and Liberal, it is reasonable to interpret that these are the people who are most partisan, with the strongest affinity to their Party identity. Either their Party is consistent with their true ideology, or they have convinced themselves or have been convinced that their ideology is consistent with their Party. Indeed, fully 75% of self-identified Republicans did identify as Conservative, and 51% of self-identified Democrats did identify as Liberal.
On the other hand, obviously, those who identify themselves as “Independent” are clearly signifying lack of a strong Party identity, regardless of their expressed ideology. And, those who identify themselves as “Moderate” or a member of one Party but leaning toward the ideology of the other Party are showing at least an awareness that their own ideology is not consistent with the dominant polar ideology of their current Party, and potentially also a willingness to cross-over to vote for a candidate of the other party if more aligned with their own views.
Therefore, all Independents and those who indicate they are a “Moderate” or a member of one Party but ideologically leaning toward views of the other Party can fairly be considered either nonpartisan, less partisan, or potentially cross-partisan. These are the Americans we identify as part of the Center Majority of America. They make up 66% of Americans, according to the recent Gallup polling data.
As noted, the recent Gallup Poll on Party identity found that just 25% of all Americans now identify as Republicans, 30% as Democrats, and fully 45% as Independents.
When you combine these findings with those of the recent Gallup poll on Political Ideology of Americans, as noted above, you do find that the most partisan 75% of Republicans who identify as Conservative Republicans actually make up only 17.75% of all Americans, while the most partisan 51% of Democrats who identify as Liberal Democrats actually amount to only 15.3% of all Americans.
The extreme Partisans (Conservative Republicans and Liberal Democrats), combined, therefore make up only 34% of the American population, while the remaining 66% of Americans, whom we call the vast Center Majority of America, are actually nonpartisan or less partisan, and potentially cross-partisan.
The Center Majority of America
Thus, fully 66% of Americans are part of what we identify as the Center Majority of America, to whom we have found that Country is more important than Party, and Solutions are more important than partisan power wars. In fact, many other polls and studies have found that the priorities, policies, and solutions favored by vast Majorities of Americans actually cut across the ideological lines associated with their Party. [2]
Just 34% of the population are the extreme partisans, those primarily engaged in the loud and vitriolic partisan tribal warfare that seems to occupy a disproportionate share of all the air time and print in partisan-leaning Media in this Country. In addition, the conflicting ideological views of these extremely partisan minorities of Americans seem to be disproportionately those represented by elected legislators, who are engaged in partisan gridlock and winner-take-all power struggles in Congress and State Legislatures.
This has given rise to VOCM America: Finally, a nonpartisan news and information outlet that gives voice to the actual views of the Center Majority of Americans, along with a Center Majority Alliance of America that supports nonpartisan and cross-partisan political action in support of the policies actually favored by the Center Majority of Americans. We provide a home and a family of like-minded Citizens for the vast Center Majority of Americans, some of whom may now belong to a Political Party that, at its extreme, does not actually represent their own views, interests, and favored policies.
Our Findings based on the Gallup Polls above are entirely consistent with the findings of another study, entitled “Hidden Tribes,” conducted for “More In Common,” a nonpartisan nonprofit organization.
Another parallel study, titled “Hidden Tribes; A Study of America’s Polarized Landscape,” conducted for the nonpartisan group, “More In Common,” found that the polarization that does exist in America is largely between and driven by the left wing of the Democratic Party and the right wing of the Republican Party, which together make up only about one third of the electorate. The study identified a total of seven different ideological groupings of Americans, which they called the “Hidden Tribes of America.”
The authors observed:
The study found that while the extreme wings of the two Parties, comprising only about one third of the electorate, are polarized in their ideologies, the remaining two-thirds of the electorate are:
… the wing groups, which often dominate the national conversation, are in fact in considerable isolation in their views on certain topics. For instance, 82 percent of Americans agree that hate speech is a problem in America today, and 80 percent also view political correctness as an issue. By contrast, only 30 percent of Progressive Activists believe political correctness is a problem.”
The Hidden Tribes Study labeled the center two-thirds (66%) of the electorate “The Exhausted Majority,” which they found “tend to hold strong and consistent views across a range of political issues.”
The Hidden Tribes of America
From “Hidden Tribes: A Study of America’s Polarized Landscape,” by Stephen Hawkins, Daniel Yudkin, Míriam Juan-Torres, Tim Dixon, for More In Common, a nonpartisan non-profit organization.
The authors concluded:
…
“The Hidden Tribes study illuminates several new findings regarding America’s past, present, and future.
- The American electorate is more complex than the oversimplified story of polarization would make us believe
- The reason American society appears to be split 50/50 is that the loudest and most extreme viewpoints monopolize airtime and social media space
- The majority of Americans, the Exhausted Majority, are frustrated and fed up with tribalism. They want to return to the mutual good faith and collaborative spirit that characterize a healthy democracy
- The vast majority of Americans―three out of four―believe our differences are not so great that we cannot come together. Let’s make that a reality.”
…
To read the full study, click here: ““Hidden Tribes“.”
The Hidden Tribes study thus further substantiates our findings based on the Gallup Data, that fully 66% of Americans make up the Center Majority that holds largely consistent views across a broad range of issues, as opposed to the Extreme Partisans on either end of the political spectrum, who together comprise only about a third of the electorate.
Conclusion
As we have noted, unfortunately, the voices of the vast 66% Center Majority of Americans, who support our Country over Party, and seek Solutions over Partisan conflict, are not as often or as loudly heard in the Media or by the politicians who are supposed to represent us!
As many in the Media and particularly the Television Industry have acknowledged, conflict sells! Generally, the more conflict, the more viewers, and the more viewers, the higher the ratings, and the higher the Ad sales revenue for the Media outlet! Scholars who have studied the Media have found that “as the industry competition to attract and hold viewers’ attention has grown, the news media have increasingly used drama, conflict, and opinion in their news coverage.” [3]
Some of the conflict-seeking Media who obsess about, and actually help create partisan tribal divisions through their emotionally-laced, often hysterical opinion segments, would have us believe that members of the opposing Political Party are all our “enemies,” and that our entire Country is hopelessly divided against each other in near tribal civil war!
Do you agree it is time that the voices of the vast Center Majority of America be heard by our Media and politicians?
Is it not time that we join together to assert the Power we hold as the 66% Center Majority of the Country?
Notes:
1. Philip E. Converse, The nature of belief systems in mass publics (1964), Critical Review, 18:1-3, 1-74, DOI: 10.1080/08913810608443650; Donald R. Kinder and Nathan P. Kalmoe, Neither Liberal nor Conservative, the Ideological Innocence in the American Public, University of Chicago Press (2017).
2. See e.g. Morning Consult Poll, March 16-19, 2017, https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/170308_crosstabs_Politico_v3_AG-2-1.pdf (accessed April 21, 2021); Morning Consult Poll, September 14-17, 2017, https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/170911_crosstabs_Politico_LIM_v1_AP-1.pdf (accessed April 21, 2021); National Partnership for Women and Families Election Eve/ Election Night Poll, November 2016, https://www.nationalpartnership.org/our-work/resources/economic-justice/key-findings-2016-election-eve-election-night-survey.pdf (accessed April 21, 2021); Kaiser Health Tracking Poll – September 2017, https://www.kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-september-2017-whats-next-for-health-care/?utm_campaign=KFF-2017-September-Tracking-Poll (accessed April 21, 2021).
3. Richard Forgette and Jonathan S. Morris. “High-Conflict Television News and Public Opinion.” Political Research Quarterly, vol. 59, no. 3, 2006, pp. 447–456, citing also other studies. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/4148045. Accessed 18 Apr. 2021; Jeffrey M. Berry and Sarah Sobieraj, “The Outrage Industry: Political Opinion Media and the New Incivility” (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016).
